Food Export Trends in 2025: Volatility and Uncertainty

Food export trends in 2025 are shaping up to be marked by volatility and uncertainty. A combination of geopolitical tensions, environmental factors, and shifting trade policies has impacted several key players in the global food trade. Below is an overview of major developments.

Several countries have implemented export restrictions on essential food items, leading to increased global food prices. Tanzania, for instance, has limited onion exports to neighbouring countries, causing a tripling of onion prices in affected regions. Similarly, Morocco has restricted tomato exports. These measures are largely driven by climate change, the El Niño weather phenomenon, and geopolitical disruptions, such as Russia’s ongoing conflict, which continue to exacerbate supply chain issues.

In January 2024, the European Union reported agri-food exports totalling €18.4 billion, largely driven by higher prices for products like olives, olive oil, and cereal preparations. Imports were valued at €13.4 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of €5 billion—a 27% increase compared to January 2023. Key markets for EU agri-food exports include the United Kingdom, the United States, and China.

The United States saw a significant agricultural trade deficit in 2023, with imports exceeding exports by $20 billion. This trend reflects a combination of rising imports and declining export volumes, compounded by international trade disputes and policy decisions.

Additionally, the U.S. faces new challenges from a recent outbreak of avian influenza in Georgia, the country’s leading poultry-producing state. A flock of 45,500 breeding chickens in Elbert County tested positive for the virus, potentially triggering trade restrictions from major importers like Mexico and Taiwan. Initial export losses are estimated at $34 million.

The Black Sea region—a critical hub for wheat supplies—faces escalating risks. Russia’s winter wheat crops are in their worst-ever condition, with 37% classified as poor. Concurrently, Ukraine’s agricultural exports are under threat as Romania considers halting the transit of Ukrainian grain, a suggestion made by a leading presidential candidate. The Romanian port of Constanta, which handled 14 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain in 2023, plays a crucial role in this trade.

French wheat exports are also under strain, with poor harvests, declining demand from key markets like Algeria and China, and increased competition from Russian wheat. Projections for the 2024/25 season estimate exports of soft wheat outside the EU at just 3.5 million metric tons, the lowest volume this century. Diplomatic tensions with Algeria and the availability of cheaper alternatives have further complicated the situation.

Australian farmers are raising concerns over potential trade tariffs amid discussions of a 10% duty on all goods exported to the U.S. Given the substantial volume of Australian beef and agricultural exports to the U.S., industry groups are lobbying for exemptions to avoid significant economic repercussions.

The UK’s food export sector is navigating a multifaceted landscape shaped by regulatory changes, trade negotiations, and industry dynamics.

Scottish salmon producers successfully lobbied to remove the term “farmed” from their packaging, arguing that the term was unnecessary and potentially negative. Government lawyers approved the change, updating the Protected Geographical Indication (PGI) label from “Scottish farmed salmon” to “Scottish salmon.” While industry leaders welcomed the adjustment, some groups expressed concerns about consumer misinterpretation.

The UK is considering joining the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean (PEM) Convention, a trade framework designed to harmonise rules of origin among 25 countries and facilitate tariff-free exports. Advocates argue this move aligns with Brexit freedoms and benefits industries with complex supply chains, such as automotive manufacturing. However, critics worry it could undermine Brexit principles.

The developments in global food exports highlight a dynamic yet uncertain environment shaped by policy decisions, environmental challenges, and market dynamics. As nations adapt to these changing conditions, the global food trade will remain a critical area of focus in 2025.